There’s no doubting the headline news from our weather in 2024 – the ever increasing temperatures. 2024 was the second warmest year in our 40 years of records, and the three warmest years on record are three of the last four. It is clear that global warming is affecting our weather here in Epping.

Significant weather events for Epping during 2024 were as follows:

• Annual mean temperature was 11.6°C, second warmest year on record, compared with the long term average of 10.5°C
• Every single month in 2024 had a mean temperature above the long term average
• Every single month in 2024 had an average daily maximum and an average daily minimum temperature above the long term average
• Total rainfall for 2024 was 790.8mm making it our 6th wettest year on record
• September 2023 to May 2024 saw a run of nine consecutive months that were wetter than average
• At -6.2°C, 18th January was our 6th coldest January night
• Warmest February on record with a mean temperature of 8.3°C (long term average is 4.3°C)
• Second wettest February on record with 103.0mm of rain
• Second earliest ‘last frost’ date on 25th February
• Fourth warmest March on record
• Equal warmest May on record
• Third driest June on record with just 12.6mm of rain
• Second wettest July day on record with 41.0mm of rain, contributing to the third wettest July overall
• Third hottest August day with 34.0°C recorded on the 12th
• Second warmest December on record
• The first time in 40 years we have had no frosts in December

We’ve now had a sequence of 16 months in a row with an above average mean temperature. If you assume that the likelihood of above or below average is equal, which would be the case in a stable climate model, then the probability of a run of 16 months all above average is 0.013%, or one in 7,692. This therefore clearly indicates the climate is not stable but is warming.

Here are some graphs illustrating the weather of 2024.

There is some evidence that years of high solar activity are also years of higher rainfall. Solar activity peaks every 11 years, with the year either side of the peak also high activity. The past few solar peaks have been 1980, 1991, 2002, 2013 and 2024. Is there a correlation with Epping’s annual rainfall? You decide!

Our records cover the years 1979 to 2013, when there was a weather station at Woodberry Down, and 2020 to date, with a weather station at the Council depot on Stonards Hill.